In our fake wrestling matches known as “elections.”.
If adjustments ate made to the exit poll data to provide conformity, what then is the point of the poll? Biden’s performance was 0.5 percentage points outside the margin of error.
The exit polls initially gave Biden 28.9% with n=1394 (so let’s say 403/1394 voted Biden), and then they processed 49 more exit poll results, and assume by some massive coincidence, ALL of them happened be votes for Biden. Can you send this to the Bernie campaign ? according to a recent Gallup Do you have the original “uncorrected towards conformity” data? All 9 of the congressional districts in the state voted for Democrats in the 2018 midterms. other countries have greater confidence in their elections than do Americans. We need to get the word out fast and widely. His tables of improbable differences between exit polls and computerized final results in the 2016 Presidential are worth study–https://tdmsresearch.com/2016/11/10/2016-presidential-election-table/ Four key States evidently went to Trump through vote-fraud then. Hi Theodore, thanks for the reply and the links. Many people said they supported Warren or Sanders. Massachusetts Polls: Who Different Groups Supported The numbers on this page are preliminary estimates from exit polls. Simple Random makes the entire population subject to polling, not random locations and a subset of each location. Massachusetts 2020 Democratic Party Primary Exit Poll.
I even saw a Cory Booker sticker a few weeks back, but no Biden anywhere! That isn’t how those statistics work. varying by less than one percent for each candidate, United States Agency for International Development, U.S. has financed exit polls in other countries, https://abcnews.go.com/images/PollingUnit/MOEFranklin.pdf, reverted and that is what he is basing his analysis on. The data cited by Soares is time stamped at 8:00 PM ET and contains 1394 respondents. This isn’t “altering” data.
See https://tdmsresearch.com/2020/03/04/massachusetts-2020-democratic-party-primary/comment-page-1/#comment-2115, They did these “adjustments” across all states in the 2016 Dem Primary. local races that are then sorted prior to hand-counting addresses this Here is the actual poll that you are referring to (Edison Research for CNN). A dead campaign with no organization on the ground in the states he won, lackluster rallies, donors abandoning him, having lost the first three primaries … It just didn’t make sense. https://www.google.com/search?q=Theodore+de+Macedo+Soares&oq=Theodore+de+Macedo+Soares&aqs=chrome..69i57.709j0j4&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8. Always check the referred-to datasources, people!
few major democracies in the world that continue to allow computerized vote This year they actually announced the winner of SC and dumped the absentee vote BEFORE the polls closed — and I’m 100% sure. This means Biden scored 34% in the exit polling.
[i] An aside – it is not even just the exit polls that cast doubt on the final vote counts.
See something you think is wrong?
I read that article by ‘Fact Check’. The discrepancies are worse than in Ohio for the Presidential ‘election’ of 2004. Poll results and election surveys for the 2020 U.S. presidential election, including polling data and who is leading between Trump and Biden in key swing states. Soares’ first footnote to the table on the MA exit poll says “As this first published exit poll was subsequently adjusted towards conformity with the final computerized vote count, the currently published exit poll differs from the results above”. […] is awash with conspiracy theories regarding the Democratic primary results for Massachusetts, after a blog from Theodore De Macedo Soares claimed there to be some significant irregularities in the vote count when comparing the exit poll […]. But Bernie does talk a lot about Russian interference in our elections. So when I saw that Biden won MA, I was like this CAN’T be right!! Thanks for the suggestion. hey theo–super appreciate the work you’re doing here. Thank you for prompting me to do so! There is no reason under the sun to trust any vote count overseen by the corrupt-to-the-core DNC.
I don’t deny that Soares exists. […]. Last paragraph: “That’s just because we get more data through the day and as it’s weighted, it gets more precise and refined. They’re scared to do so but we need to give them the courage to do so by having their back and spreading this information. We need to keep pushing these candidates to do so and to get election integrity lawyers/experts to help them so they do it right. Hi Ted, again thank you for doing this.
According to them, it serves their purpose to alter the exit polls with the incoming computerized vote totals. between the candidates (55 − 45 = 10%) is not more than two times the margin of error Why? If you want us to take your percentage seriously, you need to explain what you mean by adjusted to conformity or whatever you wrote there. Margin of error doesn’t mean 4% between candidates, but 4% for each candidate’s numbers: In horse-race polls, we want to know the difference in proportions supporting the top It’s high time we do something about this. again, thanks so much for doing the legwork to bring this to light! ", accessed November 19, 2019 ↑ Minnesota Secretary of State, "Voting hours," accessed March 4, 2020
Research by Dhrumil Mehta, Derek Shan and Mary Radcliffe. electronic voting machines can be recognized only with difficulty.”. Hey Marc, big John Brakey fan here! See https://tdmsresearch.com/2020/03/04/massachusetts-2020-democratic-party-primary/#comment-2164. The author has donated to Sanders for years. But not sure they got it… we need to resend to these groups until they respond.
In my opinion, we need to put the “Establishment” who were behind these shifts in 2016 across many states, and it looks like we’re on track to see it again, that they will not get away this again. The 2020 United States Senate election in Massachusetts was held on November 3, 2020, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the Commonwealth of Massachusetts, concurrently with the 2020 U.S. presidential election, as well as elections to the United States Senate in other states, elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local … Ex: 4.5%(Column 3) divided by 28.9% (Column 1) = 15.7% (Actually 15.6%). Please see my comment to Nikki as it applies to you too and everyone reading this and wanting to help. Sorry, I missed the note saying that CNN adjusted the exit polls. If you misquote sources and make up your own numbers, you can convince gullible folks of just about anything. …and that should be in the body, not a footnote. If not, why not? lacking that information was to take screen shots every 5 minutes when they were announcing the “results”.
Ted: can you please post a screen shot of the 8 pm exit poll data that you used to compile your chart, above,in the above article? I often wonder if Bernie’s just a player in the game as well.
We need to put the “Establishment” on notice that we will not tolerate this. Theodore… it would be “interesting” to see the before and after exit poll data, to see how the exit poll data is adjusted for public consumption. manufactured) otherwise. government desires a total ban on their use.
Because he literally made his numbers up.
of the poll (5%). They voted in the direction of momentum, but didn’t want to tell that to the pollsters. The United States remains one of the has a 1% audit following the electronic tabulation to check the integrity. Exit poll adjusting: Most states (33) use paper ballots, and most of the rest use VVPAT (7) or Mail (3). I suggest we ask all affected candidates to do this… not just the candidate we’re personally supporting. We analyzed Massachusetts’ elections to determine who we think will win in 2020. This one is so well done, maybe we put part of it in a commercial!
Biden legit crushed Sanders. Available at: https://abcnews.go.com/images/PollingUnit/MOEFranklin.pdf. There are a variety of reasons for this, including not wanting to let their spouse or anyone else know how a person voted. The link can be found at the bottom of the article.
These estimates are based on interviews with voters outside of a sample of polling places, or by phone.
increase or decrease from the candidate’s exit poll projection (difference in It’s not an accusation per se, its just what they do. Hillary Clinton carried the district by 11 points in 2016, and Democratic Rep. Bill Keating was reelected by 19 points in 2018. These results fit perfectly with my observations concerning what I call “The Massachusetts Miracle” of the Democratic primary in 2008 in which the preferred establishment candidate at that time, Hillary Clinton, defeated Barack Obama (we were told) by a resounding margin of 57% to 41% of the vote.
I live & vote in Massachusetts, so I know for a fact that we DO use paper ballots! So, the big story isn’t that CNN and NYT and others are fudging their exit-poll data? If anyone has a connection to the inner circle of any of the candidates affected negatively in any state (Bernie, Warren, Steyer), please reach out to them with this information and do what you can to get these candidates/teams to speak out publicly ASAP. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t78Ff26-V8s. I don’t think she will accept anything less than a CNN website screen grab to be convinced that they posted the 8pm numbers. The reason I do not use the usual approach is because there are multiple candidates and the simpler formula would not be correct. LOL. Exactly Renee!!! In fact, maybe they should team up. And note my comment above: that the Elections Boards I’ve read about or experienced, really don’t like citizens breathing down their necks, and will do things like keep the observers at a distance in the next room with a window through which to try to guess what’s going on, and (at my local Elections Board for a large county) enough room for about 5 people in the observers’ area. Sign In ... Election 2020 - Massachusetts Senate ... 2020 National Polls. If so, maybe that gives us a bit more leverage. method of providing different colored paper ballots for federal, state, and As explained by Joe Lenski, executive vice president of Edison Media Research as soon as the polls close and the votes begin to come in Edison Research modifies the exit polls accordingly. I agree… please send a link to this page with a short explanation for context to all your social media accounts. if its the precinct there’ll have to be someone in the know, just in case, which – summed across precincts can be problematic. The reason for this is that technically these exit polls weren’t meant to detect discrepancies, but to get demographic data about voters. constitutional requirements of the principle of the public nature of elections.” Nikki, you are right on.
See: https://www.cnn.com/election/2020/state/massachusetts, the first footnote addresses this. Note that Biden averaged 34% on the exit polls (NOT 28.9% as you assert) and Sanders around 28% (NOT 30.4 % as you claim).
They said, “No.” We don’t live in a democracy anymore than the Russians did under Stalin.
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